I have a legitimate fear.

"mazda616" (mazda616) 12/16/2014 at 11:13 • Filed to: Self-driving cars

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And that fear is what I'll do with my life when my #1 hobby is dead and gone.

So, we all know what is coming. Someday, cars won't really be cars. They'll be soulless blobs that transport us from point A to point B, with no external input required. There are many that even suggest that car ownership itself will die out, because we will just use a smartphone to summon a nearby self-driving car to come pick us up. There are pros to this, of course, such as lower accident rates, DUIs, etc. However, it just makes me sad.

From even before I could talk, I've been obsessed with cars. I can name every one that goes down the road. My first word was "wheel." By the time I was in middle school, I had literally thousands upon thousands of die cast cars (Hot Wheels, Matchbox, Maisto, etc.). Cars have always been my number one interest and my main passion. What I'm wondering is...what am I going to do when they don't really exist anymore?

I honestly wonder about it. It may sound silly, but I truly don't know what my life will be like once my number one passion is gone. I spend so much time with cars, looking up cars, researching them, working on them, etc. They always have been my passion and they will be until it is no longer possible.

Does anyone have similar fears or wonders? Or am I the only neurotic/paranoid one?

Hahayoustupidludditeshutupandgohandcrankyourmodeltalready > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:16

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I doubt we will see that day for a very long time. Decades. There are still way too many problem and bugs with autonomous cars for them to be marketworthy for a while.

Twingo Tamer - About to descend into project car hell. > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:18

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Cry while drinking whiskey and hugging an old air filter.

Or future hot rodders will convert autonomous vehicles back to manual controls. Like a manual gearbox swap now.

mazda616 > Twingo Tamer - About to descend into project car hell. 12/16/2014 at 11:20

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Hmm. I have some Jack Daniels and I have an old air filter or two. Sounds like my plans are made.

Alfalfa > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:20

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I'm certainly not worried for myself. As long as there are enthusiasts, there will be enthusiast cars. I'm more worried that the enthusiasts will continue to dwindle, which I don't think will happen in my lifetime.

Twingo Tamer - About to descend into project car hell. > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:20

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Now that's what I call planning for the future.

E92M3 > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:21

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That's at least 30 years away. Once it happens there will be tracks and private roads for collectors to come play in their analog combustion engine cars. Think disney for car people.

claramag, Mustaco Master > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:21

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Hey, if everybody starts driving autonomous cars that just leaves more room on the road for gearheads

The REAL worry is if they ever say...ban manual controlled vehicles on public roads from the common consumer in the interest of safety. I could see a strong argument for it, although maybe not in our lifetime

Sn210 > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:21

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Cars might die, but they won't be gone. When the 110th Pebble Beach Concours takes place, 45-year old 2015 Hellcats will win their classes.

Redbulldidlo > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:24

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you're paranoid, there are still model T's, steam powered cars and all that sort going about right now, the car as it currently is will definately not die in your lifetime.

RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:25

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Counterpoint: horseback riding is still very much a thing, and that's even with horses being grossly impractical for use on the public roads. Bicycling makes zero sense for the vast majority of people, either.

Oh, and that posited no-ownership thing? Horseshit. Fluffy-headed communalist nitwittery that ignores the classic ethos of ownership of... everything. Yeah, sure people are going to share cars with everybody else and their unpredictable levels of cleanliness, and abandon availability convenience, particularly right in the face of deflationary cost effects on anything electronic or automated toward the ability to own a cheap appliance. Particularly when claims are made for reduced insurance costs on self-drivers and insurance often exceeds all other costs one on one. Derp.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:25

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I don't see it happening in our lifetime (or in our driving lives), but for the next generation I definitely think it's a possibility.

The government and insurance agencies and environmental groups (as it pertains to the internal combustion engine) will start to conspire against us enthusiasts at some point.

They will portray driving a car as a selfish, wasteful, dangerous and shameful practice.

Do we need an NRA-esque organization for automotive enthusiasts and freedom-lovers? The National Automobile Association?

They can pry my shift knob from my cold, dead hands...

Sn210 > E92M3 12/16/2014 at 11:26

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we could call it Autopia

jariten1781 > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:27

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Even if manually controlled cars are banned on public roads in your lifetime (doubtful) there'll still be plenty of mechanical hobbies. Pleasure boats, ultralights, quads, snowmobiles, dirt bikes, etc.

It's not going to happen though. 50 years from now autonomous cars will be thought of just like we think of flying cars today...always promised they'll be here in 'ten years' but never actually making it to market in any meaningful way..

nermal > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 11:45

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I know the feels. I recently contemplated replacing my manual MK6 GTI with a new I3. Things progressed to the point that I test drove one & got pricing as well.

The worst part about it was how much I actually enjoyed driving the I3. The experience was completely different - Instead of banging thru the gears, dealing with turbo lag, etc, it was just smooth, seamless, linear acceleration. Handling not as good, but ride much smoother.

The test drive was rather short, but the experience of launching from a few stoplights and leaving other cars in the dust while driving a rolling spaceship was a definite hoot. But I'm not certain that I can live with it as sole replacement to the GTI, which is where I'm left conflicted.
If that's the future, it will definitely be pretty sweet. But I'm not so sure that I'm ready for it at the moment.

Leadbull > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 12:05

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You've got nothing to worry about, because:

1. The autonomous cars on the edge of development/deployment will only self-drive on the highway. I don't see fully autonomous cars in mass happening technologically for another 20 or more years. It will take even longer for that technology to become cheap, and trickle down into cars average people can actually afford.

2. Legal problems.

— Currently, a few (three?) states allow autonomous cars, but a driver must still be at the wheel and alert. That's how it's going to be for a long time.

— Blending autonomous cars with driver'd cars is going to be a huge issue. Traffic laws may need updating, as well as insurance and criminal laws. That takes time, and will severely bog down autonomous car implementation.

— The automotive industry is huge. Large car manufacturers won't let normal cars become illegal until they're entire lineup is updated. That Google Car wizardry is expensive; we're not going to see autonomous Corollas for a long time. Manufacturers and dealers will lobby against mass implementation of autonomous cars.

3. There are so many cars around. How are you going to tell people they can't drive or buy used cars anymore? You can't. Not until normal, non-autonomous cars are a distant, irrelevant memory. The automotive industry and culture is so alive, that I don't see this happening in my lifetime. Not in the U.S., and certainly not in developing, or even middle-tier countries.

***

So, what will happen during our lifetimes?

Highways will run much smoother. Robot cars will eventually leave the highways, but they won't replace normal cars. Perhaps asshat parking will become less prevalent (because the cars park themselves).

I don't know about you, but I can't wait for that.

E. Julius > Sn210 12/16/2014 at 13:24

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I'm so happy I will most likely be able to see that day.

E. Julius > mazda616 12/16/2014 at 13:25

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Probably won't happen for a long time, if ever, but if it does I imagine it will be a lot like the Rush song "Red Barchetta".

orcim > mazda616 12/17/2014 at 02:31

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First, cultural inertia. I know soccer mom's that would be dead before you pried their mini-vans out of their hands. It's a force and it's real. Any resistance to it will result in the resistance being mown over. As others have said, decades at least. I'm predicting much longer, personally.

Second, the tech curve. Sure, their are demonstrating things now, but how long does it take to get a mechanical/electrical/computer device product to man-safe levels? Way more than any tech demonstration would have you believe. I really believe this is going to be slow, maybe slower than your life.

Third, you ever watch Mad Max? That'll happen too, someday. Maybe sooner than later, but then there's inertial in systems and it's formidable. Never underestimate the power of stoopid to continue being so. If you're worried about it, you could get a cabin, put in a bitchin' garage, house a bitchin' DD and then wait it out. But I think it'll pass to your children or their children before all is said and done.